Trump Faces Potential Defeat in Iran War After Three Months

US President Donald Trump may have won most of the battles against Iran, but three months after invading the Islamic Republic, he is now facing a big question, is he losing the war?

With Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, its resistance to nuclear concessions, and its religiously hardline government largely intact, doubts are growing about whether Trump can convincingly present the US military's strategic successes as geopolitical victories.

Some analysts say his repeated claims of total victory ring hollow. Both sides are wavering between uncertain diplomacy and his volatile threats to resume attacks, which are certain to provoke Iranian retaliation across the region.

Trump is now at risk of emerging from this conflict in a worse state than the US and its Arab allies in the Gulf. On the other hand, Iran, though militarily and economically battered, may emerge with even greater influence by demonstrating its ability to block one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply.

This crisis is not yet over. Some experts point out that Trump may still find a way to save face if negotiations go his way.

But others predict a grim post-war scenario for Trump.

'We are three months in, and the war, designed as a short-term game for Trump, appears to be turning into a long-term strategic failure,' said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations.

This is important for Trump, especially given his famous sensitivity to being seen as a loser, an insult he often hurled at opponents. In the Iran crisis, he finds himself the commander-in-chief of the world's most powerful military, standing against a second-tier power he believes he dominates.

And this predicament could increase the likelihood that Trump, who has not yet set a clear ultimate goal, will back down from his maximum stance and resist any deal or a repeat of the 2015 Obama-era Iran nuclear deal that he scrapped in his first term, analysts say.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wells said, 'America has met or exceeded all our military objectives in 'Operation Epic Fury.''

'President Trump has all the strength and he has wisely kept all options open,' she added.

• Pressure and frustration

Trump campaigned for a second term promising no unnecessary military interventions, but he has entangled the US in a quagmire that could cause lasting damage to his foreign policy record and his credibility abroad.

This ongoing stalemate comes as he faces domestic pressure over high gasoline prices and low approval ratings ahead of the November midterm elections. His Republican party is struggling to maintain control of Congress.

As a result, more than six weeks after the ceasefire, some analysts believe Trump faces a tough choice: accept a potentially flawed deal as a way out, or risk a longer crisis by advancing militarily. If diplomacy fails, their options include launching a series of swift but limited attacks, presenting it as a final victory, and moving on.

Another possibility, according to analysts, is that Trump may try to shift the subject and focus on Cuba, as he suggested, hoping to achieve an easier victory.

In that case, he may misjudge the challenges posed by Havana. This could be because, as some of Trump's allies have privately admitted: Trump mistakenly thought the Iran operation would be like the January 3 raid, which led to the capture of Venezuela's president and his replacement.

Nevertheless, Trump has no shortage of supporters.

Alexander Gray, a former senior advisor to Trump's first term and currently CEO of American Global Strategies Consultancy, rejected the notion that the president's Iran campaign is in crisis.

He said that the heavy blow to Iran's military capabilities is in itself a 'strategic success,' the war has brought the Gulf nations closer to the US and further from China, and the fate of Iran's nuclear program is yet to be determined.

However, there are signs that Trump is frustrated by his inability to control the narrative. He has lashed out at his critics, accusing the media of 'treason.'

The conflict has lasted more than twice the maximum six-week deadline set by Trump when he launched the war in coordination with Israel on February 28. Since then, while his 'MAGA' political base has supported him in the war, cracks have appeared in the near-unanimous support he has received from Republican lawmakers.

Initially, waves of airstrikes rapidly destroyed Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, sank much of its navy, and killed many top leaders.

But Tehran responded by blocking the Strait, which sent energy prices soaring, and attacking Israel and its Gulf neighbors. Trump then ordered a blockade of Iran's ports, but this has also failed to force Tehran to bend to his will.

Although Iranian officials have clearly exaggerated their military capabilities, Iran's leaders have countered Trump's claims of victory with their own propaganda, portraying Trump's campaign as a 'shameful defeat.'

• Shifting goals still unattainable

Trump said his objectives in going to war were to close Iran's path to nuclear weapons, end its ability to threaten the region and American interests, and make it easier for Iranians to overthrow their rulers.

Many analysts say there is no sign that his repeatedly shifting goals have been achieved, and they are unlikely to be met.

According to Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, Iran's rulers consider it a success that they survived the US attack despite suffering devastating blows and learned how much control they could exert over Gulf shipping.

'They found out they could use that leverage and face very little consequence for it,' said Panikoff, now with the Atlantic Council think tank. He added that Iran appears confident it can withstand more economic pain than Trump and last longer than him.

Trump's main declared war goal - the nuclear disarmament of Iran - also remains unfulfilled, and Tehran has shown little willingness to significantly curb its program.

Even after US and Israeli airstrikes last June, stockpiles of highly enriched uranium are believed to be buried underground and can be extracted and further processed to weapons-grade levels. Iran has said it wants the US to accept its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Complicating matters, the country's supreme leader has issued a directive that uranium close to weapons-grade level cannot be sent abroad, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters.

Some analysts suggest that the war could lead Iran to increase its efforts to develop nuclear weapons to protect itself, like nuclear-armed North Korea, rather than reduce them.

Trump's other declared goal of forcing Iran to stop supporting armed proxy groups has also not been met.

Adding to Trump's challenges, he is now fighting against new Iranian leaders considered even more hardline than the previous leaders who were killed. They are widely expected to have enough missiles and drones left to continue posing a threat to their neighbors even after the war.

He is also suffering the consequences of further deterioration in relations with traditional European allies. These allies have largely rejected his call for support in a war they were not consulted on.

Meanwhile, China and Russia have learned lessons from the weaknesses of the US military against Iranian strategy and how some of its weapon supplies have been depleted, analysts say.

According to Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, the result will be a more decisive blow to American standing than the humiliating withdrawals from the long and bloody conflicts in Vietnam and Afghanistan, as those countries were far from the main arenas of global competition.

In a recent commentary titled 'Checkmate in Iran' on the website of The Atlantic magazine, he wrote, 'There will be no return to the old normal, no final American victory that can undo or overcome the damage done.'

Reuters