US Naval Blockade on Iran Could Extend for Months, Fueling Global Oil Market Volatility

Iran. With signs that the ongoing US naval blockade on Iran could be extended for months, the global oil market has seen sharp fluctuations. President Donald Trump, stating that he would further tighten the pressure strategy against Iran, deemed the blockade more effective than bombing, pushing oil prices to their highest point in four years.

Tensions have further escalated as diplomatic efforts between Iran and the US have stalled. In this context, Trump held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is reported that Putin warned of 'harmful consequences' if the US and Israel reignite war on Iran.

In a meeting with oil industry officials, Trump described the blockade of Iranian ports as a decisive step. Tehran is demanding the removal of the blockade before any agreement. However, according to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), it has succeeded in turning back the 42nd merchant ship attempting to violate the blockade. It is claimed that this has prevented approximately $6 billion worth of 69 million barrels of oil from entering the market.

The impact of the war is also beginning to be seen in US domestic politics. As this conflict is not popular among the general voters, political pressure is mounting on Trump to end the war. Furthermore, rising oil prices have increased spending for American consumers, and US allies are also facing insecurity.

According to a White House official, the Trump administration is discussing ways to balance global oil supply and is prepared to maintain the blockade for a long time if necessary. Trump indicated in an interview that pressure on Iran is rapidly increasing and signaled that further strict measures would be taken in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the price of crude oil in the international market is rising. After reaching $122.53, the price of US benchmark Brent crude has now stabilized around $120, while West Texas Intermediate is trading around $108.

Iran has signaled resistance through its strategic location—the Strait of Hormuz. As about one-fifth of the world's oil is transported through this route, its control could have serious implications for the global economy.

Differences are also emerging on the European front. After Germany refused to directly support the war against Iran or contribute to a peacekeeping force, Trump threatened to reduce the number of US soldiers stationed in Germany. The German leadership has consistently advocated for prioritizing a diplomatic solution.

Although high-ranking US officials have attempted dialogue with Iran, negotiations have not been effective due to a lack of clarity regarding the power structure there. Damage to Iran's top leadership following Israeli attacks has created ambiguity in the decision-making process.

The humanitarian impact of the war is also becoming severe. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that due to the war and the resulting increase in fertilizer prices, more than 30 million people in 160 countries could be pushed into poverty. The head of the organization called this situation a sign of 'reverse development'.

The economic crisis within Iran is deepening. The national currency, the Rial, has fallen to a historic low against the dollar. Ordinary citizens in Tehran complain that past negotiations have not improved their living standards. According to one local resident, the economic situation of the people has worsened after every negotiation.

Meanwhile, Iran has proposed to ease its control over the Strait of Hormuz only after the US lifts its blockade. However, Washington has expressed distrust towards this proposal.

Regional tensions have not yet subsided. Violence continues in Lebanon due to the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed groups. Despite the extension of the ceasefire, Israeli attacks have not stopped. Recent attacks have reportedly injured Lebanese soldiers and resulted in one death.

The President of Lebanon stated that dialogue is the only way to achieve lasting peace and that the ceasefire must be fully implemented. However, continuous violence is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis, with an estimated over 1.2 million people at risk of starvation.