Global Economy Suffers $50 Billion Oil Loss Amid 50-Day Iran Conflict

Kathmandu. As the Iran conflict nears its 50th day, the global economy has lost approximately $50 billion worth of crude oil production. According to analysts and Reuters calculations, the aftershocks of this crisis are expected to be felt not just for months, but for years to come.

Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open following a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, and US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in a swift end to the war, the depth of the damage remains significant. According to Kpler data, more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have vanished from the global market since the crisis began in late February, marking the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.

The scale of this 500 million barrel loss is immense. According to Ian Mowat, a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie, this volume is equivalent to 10 weeks of global jet fuel demand or 11 days of total global vehicle fuel consumption.

This volume could cover nearly a month of US oil demand or over a month of demand for the entire European continent. Furthermore, it is enough to fuel the US military for six years or power the global shipping industry for four months.

Due to the war, Gulf nations alone lost 8 million barrels of crude oil production per day in March. This output is equivalent to the combined production of the world's two largest oil companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron. Kpler data also shows a sharp decline in jet fuel exports from countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Exports, which stood at 19.6 million barrels in February, shrank to just 4.1 million barrels in March and April.

According to Kpler senior analyst Johannes Rauball, with the average price of oil hovering around $100 per barrel since the conflict began, the value of this lost volume is approximately $50 billion. This loss is equivalent to 1 percent of the GDP of a powerful nation like Germany or the entire GDP of countries like Latvia and Estonia.

Even with the Strait of Hormuz open, it appears it will take considerable time for oil production and flows to return to normal. In April alone, global underground oil storage fell by 45 million barrels. It may take another four to five months to restore some oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq to normal operations.

Due to the damage sustained by Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex and other processing centers, it is certain that full restoration of regional energy infrastructure will take years.