Nepali Political Circles Buzz Over Bangladesh Election Results, Drawing Parallels and Contrasts

Kathmandu. Approximately a year and a half after student protests, general elections were recently held in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) emerged victorious, securing 212 out of 300 seats, which is more than a two-thirds majority.

The results of the Bangladesh election are being widely discussed in political circles in Nepal. With the old guard returning to power through an election fueled by protests in Bangladesh, established parties in Nepal, including the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Centre), are gaining confidence.

CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, speaking in Jhapa on Falgun 3, asserted that Nepal's electoral situation would mirror that of Bangladesh. Oli appeared encouraged that the established party returned strong in Bangladesh, where the party that rose from the protests secured only 6 seats.

CPN (Maoist Centre) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' also expressed a similar view regarding the situation in Nepal during a program in Chunbang, Rukum East on Falgun 2. Asserting that the Bangladesh election sent a message that the public rejects those who spread arson and violence, he claimed the electoral outcome in Nepal would be similar. Prachanda also noted that popularity on social media is not enough to win elections, citing the example of a person with 7.5 million social media followers who lost the election.

Dr. CK Raut, Chairman of the Janmat Party, stated that Bangladeshi voters rejected young individuals who sought political establishment through destruction. He added that parties focused on staging popularity met a similar fate in India and Thailand.

“It is certain that the election on Falgun 21 will sweep away the ideologically bankrupt, morally bankrupt, anti-federal, and anti-Madhesi parties that aim to burn, loot, and deceive the country,” he said.

BNP is an old party in Bangladesh, but it had supported the July Revolution. The National Citizens Party (NCP), formed by some students who led the movement, secured only 6 seats even after forming an alliance with the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami.

BNP is a 47-year-old party that has led the government four times. There was always a competition between Sheikh Hasina's Awami League and Khaleda Zia's BNP. It is being commented that the same situation has arisen again in Bangladesh. These two parties have long shared power in Bangladesh.

During the student movement in 2024, the government was led by Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League. Not only did the government led by Sheikh Hasina fall due to the student movement, but Hasina was forced to flee the country. She is currently taking refuge in India.

The BNP fully supported the student movement, similar to the support the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) gave to the Gen Z movement in Nepal.

The Awami League party was banned from participating in the election; therefore, Sheikh Hasina has questioned the election results.

There is not much fundamental difference between BNP and Awami League. The difference is that this time the leadership of the BNP is in the hands of the new leader Tarique Rahman, who is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. However, Tarique faces corruption allegations. It is commented that he took undue advantage when his mother was Prime Minister. Khaleda Zia passed away a few months ago. Tarique has now become the new Prime Minister of Bangladesh with a two-thirds majority in parliament.

What will happen in Nepal when the established parties win in Bangladesh?

Pramod Jaiswal, an expert in international affairs and Research Director at the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement, says, “The electoral result in Nepal will not be the same as in Bangladesh because the electoral systems of the two countries are different.”

He explains that Bangladesh only uses the first-past-the-post system, whereas Nepal uses both direct and proportional representation, which automatically leads to different election outcomes than in Bangladesh. “In this election, RSP will receive the most proportional votes; RSP will receive five percent more proportional votes than CPN-UML received in the last election,” he estimates. “By that measure, RSP has the possibility of becoming the largest party.”

Furthermore, in Bangladesh, the competition has always been between the Awami League and the BNP. Previously, the Awami League government had banned the BNP, which is why the Awami League emerged as the larger party in the previous election. This time, with the Awami League banned, the BNP emerged as the larger party.

Former Ambassador Tanka Karki has a slightly different analysis. “The people of Bangladesh voted against extremism. It cannot be said that the same situation will not arise in Nepal,” he says. “Extremism is also developing in Nepal in the name of the Gen Z movement, which is a bad sign for the country. The election is what stops the infiltration that occurred in the name of the movement, and possibly the electoral result in Nepal could be similar to that of Bangladesh and Thailand.”

A similar situation to Bangladesh was seen in the recently concluded general election in Thailand. The progressive political force, which appeared extremely popular on social media, was ultimately limited to a few seats. The Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, achieved significant success and became the decisive power.

The progressive party (Move Forward Party) remained confined to urban areas. Rural voters did not trust the Move Forward Party. This party finished second in the election, while the Pheu Thai Party came third. Former Ambassador Karki states that the elections in Thailand and Bangladesh show a common political trend.