Dhanusha-4 Election Showdown: Congress and UML Field Familiar Rivals Amidst Rising 'Balen Factor'

Janakpurdham. In the upcoming House of Representatives election in Dhanusha Constituency No. 4, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have fielded their previous candidates. UML has nominated Raghubir Mahaseth, and Nepali Congress has nominated Mahendra Yadav. These two are known as perennial competitors in this constituency.

Mahaseth, the candidate from UML, is the party's Deputy Secretary-General, while Yadav, the candidate from Congress, is a former Joint Secretary-General. These two candidates have been facing each other in this constituency since the 2074 election. They are set to compete against each other for the third time.

In the 2074 election, Raghubir Mahaseth of UML was elected from this constituency with 22,532 votes, while Mahendra Yadav of Congress stood second with 19,991 votes. In the 2079 election, Mahaseth of UML was again elected from this constituency by a narrow margin. He received 32,236 votes, while Yadav of Congress received 32,112 votes.

Based on this, the main competition in this constituency has been between UML and Congress. However, there is growing interest in how the rising wave of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) will impact Dhanusha-4 in the upcoming election.

RSP has advanced its election campaign by proposing Balen Shah as the future Prime Minister. Since Balen is a son of the Madhes region and his ancestral home is in neighboring Mahottari district, it remains to be seen how much the 'Balen Factor' will influence the Madhes.

Rajkishor Mahato is the candidate from RSP in this constituency. Similarly, Engineer Sanjaykumar Mahato is the candidate from the Communist Party of Nepal, and Engineer Dr. Krishnachandra Sah is the candidate from Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal. A total of 37 candidates, including 12 from various political parties and 25 independents, are contesting in Dhanusha Constituency No. 4.

Looking at the results of the previous two parliamentary elections, UML's Mahaseth appears to be a strong candidate in Dhanusha Constituency No. 4. UML Deputy Secretary-General Mahaseth has served as a minister multiple times. He is known as a leader capable of uniting party leaders and cadres in his constituency.

Mahaseth's parliamentary political journey began with the by-election in 2065 BS. He was elected from Dhanusha Constituency No. 5 in the Constituent Assembly by-election held after Dr. Ram Baran Yadav became President. However, in the Second Constituent Assembly election of 2070 BS, he was defeated by President's son Chandramohan Yadav. Since then, he has won consecutively in the House of Representatives elections of 2074 and 2079 BS and is in the electoral field again as a main competitor this time.

According to Rakesh Jha, a voter from Dhanusha-4, the image of UML in the Madhes is weakening due to recent remarks made by UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and other leaders regarding the Madhes region. 'Raghubirji has done some work, but the behavior and statements of UML's top leaders towards the Madhesi community have been hurtful,' he said, 'This could cause damage to UML's votes.'

Sunil Sah, a resident of Bageshwar-5, Shantipura, stated that despite winning from this constituency twice consecutively, there is disappointment among the public because basic necessities like development, education, and health have not improved. 'Satisfactory work has not been done in basic sectors like education and health as per the election promises,' he said.

Meanwhile, Nepali Congress candidate Mahendra Yadav is also active in wooing voters. Having been defeated twice before from this constituency, he is striving to win the trust of the voters this time. However, he faces the challenge of uniting the entire party and its cadres by overcoming factionalism within the Congress.

Although its organization is weak in the Madhes districts, RSP has formulated a strategy to attract Madhes votes by presenting Balen Shah as the future Prime Minister. RSP candidate Rajkishor Mahato was a candidate for the Provincial Assembly member from the then Federal Socialist Forum in the 2074 election. He finished in second place in the Provincial Assembly election from Dhanusha-4 (2). This time, he is in the electoral field from RSP with a different political identity.

The presence of Balen Shah and his balanced speech in the Maithili language at the 'Parivartan Udghosh Sabha' organized in Janakpurdham on the occasion of Martyrs' Day on Magh 5 has increased attraction towards RSP. However, whether that attraction will remain until voting day and how much it will translate into votes remains an unanswered question.

In Dhanusha-4, the 'Balen Factor' of RSP seems to be dominating over the party itself. Young people, especially in the Gen Z age group, are attracted to RSP, but there is also an experience that the election atmosphere seen in the Madhes often differs from the final results.

Engineer Krishnachandra Sah is the candidate from Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal in Dhanusha-4. In the 2079 election, when he contested from the Nepal Democratic Party, he received 204 votes. On the other hand, Sanjaykumar Mahato is the candidate from the Communist Party of Nepal. Emerging from the All Nepal Revolutionary Students' Union, he is the youngest candidate in this constituency, representing the younger generation, but his party appears organizationally weak.

Among the five local levels under Dhanusha Constituency No. 4, Congress won in Mithila Municipality, Bageshwar Rural Municipality, Lakshminiya Rural Municipality, and Mithila Bihari Municipality in the local level elections, while UML won the Deputy Mayor position in Mithila Municipality along with a majority of wards. Kshireshwar Municipality's Mayor was won by UML.

Based on the votes secured by the ward chairpersons of the 42 wards falling in this area, the strength of Congress and UML appears almost equal. However, although Congress is the leading party, it seems to have failed to bring results in its favor in previous elections due to its inability to manage internal conflicts.