By elections for 18 vacant seats: Congress has nothing to lose, challenge for Communists

KATHMANDU, October 30: By-polls for four seats of House of Representatives (HoR) and 18 seats for Provincial Assembly  are due to be held soon.

The Election Commission has already asked Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deube to fix dates for the election. There are currently four vacant seats in the HoR and 18 seats in the provincial assemblies.

The by-polls have been viewed as a mini-general election as the poll body has already ruled out the possibility of an early election.General public of as many as 19 districts will be voting in the election. Major political parties like Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist) and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) will be participating in the 

election.

The by-polls will be held in Taplejung, Dhanusha, Bara, Rauthat, Dolakha, Baglung, Rupandehi, Agrakanchi, Gulmi, Kapilvastu, Dang, Banke, Dailekh, Kalikot, Dopla, Salyan, Achham and Kailali districts.

In the upcoming election, ruling NC has nothing to lose. Earlier in 2017 elections, NC had not won any of those seats which have been lying vacant. Two communist parties - UML and Maoist Center- which formed an alliance leading to a landslide victory, are likely to lose their strengths in the upcoming by-polls.

All four vacants seats in HoR were won by Maoist Center including Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, Prabhu Sah, Lekh Raj Bhatta and Gaurishankar Chaudhary. Sah, Bhatta and Chaudhary and Rayamajhi were elected through the FPTP electoral system in 2017 general elections on behalf of the Maoist party.These leaders joined the UML after the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP) was declared invalid by the Supreme Court. 

It is to be noted that the apex court on March 7 invalidated the NCP and resurrected the UML and Maoist Center. The two parties following a successful election campaign in 2017 had merged to form the NCP in May 2018. 

The Maoist party is now facing a challenge to defend those seats while UML will also face a tough trial.

Scenario in Provinces 

Of the 18 vacant seats in different provincial assemblies, the UML had emerged victorious in seven constituencies while Maoist Center had won eight seats. Likewise, JSP (erstwhile Federal Socialist Forum) had won two seats while Rastriya Janamorcha had one seat.

The communist parties mainly, UML and Maoist Center, are most likely to abate during these by-polls as they have not only broken the leftist alliance but also suffered splits. 

Of the eight seats won by Maoist Center in the 2017 election, all those former lawmakers of eight constituencies have now joined UML which has aroused fresh challenges for the party to maintain its position.

List of vacant constituencies in provincial assemblies:

Previously won by Maoist Center

1. Taplejung 1(2) 

2. Dhanusha 1(2)

3. Rautahat 3(2)

4. Bara 3(1)

5. Rupandehi 1(2)

6. Gulmi 2(2)

7. Dailekh 1(1)

8.Achham 1(2) 

Previously won by UML

1. Dolakha 1(2) 

2. Kapilvastu 2(1)

3. Dang 2(2)

4. Dailekh 1(2) 

5. Kalikot 1(1)

6. Dolpa 1(1)

7. Salyan 1(2)

Previously won by JSP (erstwhile Federal Socialist Forum) 

1. Rupandehi 3(1)

2. Banke 2(1)

Previously won by Rastriya Janamorcha

1. Baglung 1(2)