Election Results Signal Major Shift in Nepal's Political Landscape, Empowering New Party

Kathmandu. As the final results of the elections held on Falgun 21 are being finalized, a clear indication of the composition of the new House of Representatives and the parliamentary arithmetic has emerged.

The latest mandate has not only given the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) a mandate to form a government with nearly a two-thirds majority, but it has also completely closed the door for the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the older parties that have alternated in power for the past 34 years, to reach the government for the next five years.

The election results have reduced the presence of older parties in parliament. The vote count from both the first-past-the-post and proportional representation systems makes it certain that the number of parties in the next parliament will be halved compared to the past.

It is easily understood from the votes secured by the parties that a maximum of only 6 parties will be represented in the newly formed House of Representatives. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is set to become the leading party with a majority close to two-thirds, while the Nepali Congress is in line to be the second, and CPN-UML the third. The parties in second, third, and fourth positions have significantly shrunk in size compared to before.

The Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda', which was once the largest party, is now set to become the fourth largest. The Shram Sanskriti Party and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) are expected to be the fifth and sixth largest parties, respectively. The Shram Sanskriti Party is a political party formed after the Gen Z movement, while the RPP is an older party supporting the monarchy.

In the House of Representatives formed from the 2079 elections, 12 parties were represented. These included Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Centre), RSP, RPP, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal, Unified Socialist, Janamat Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP), Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal, Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP), and Rastriya Janamorcha. However, this time, voters have sidelined even the previously considered major parties and those with regional strongholds, pouring overwhelming public support onto the RSP, which was formed only 3 years ago, making it the largest party. With such a mandate, the RSP will not require the support of any other party to form the government and implement its manifesto.

Previously, since more than two parties were required to form a government, the game of forming and collapsing governments continued incessantly. While parties were preoccupied with this game, issues of good governance and public concern were often overshadowed. The election results following the Gen Z movement have at least freed the RSP from this ailment. However, the example of even a single-majority government not lasting five years due to various reasons in the past should not be forgotten.

Since 2048 BS, the Nepali Congress–UML, and after the 2062/063 movement, the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and Maoists have led the government.

In the governments formed under the leadership of these three parties, other smaller and regional (Madhesi) parties also got opportunities to join the government multiple times. However, the size of the parties represented in the new parliament indicates that the trend of opening small-scale 'Nangle Shops' (small, opportunistic businesses) and maneuvering to join the government will also end.