US-Israel Joint Attack on Iran Sparks Global Energy Market Shock and Stock Market Plunge

Tehran. The joint US-Israel attack on Iran and the subsequent regional tension have severely jolted the global energy market. As insecurity escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil and gas prices surged as Asian markets opened on Monday, while stock markets experienced deep declines.

Following the attack in the Islamic Republic of Iran that resulted in the deaths of senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Brent crude initially jumped nearly 14 percent and West Texas Intermediate rose by about 12 percent in early trading.

News that the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil supply flows, was effectively blocked, coupled with reports of attacks on some vessels and soaring insurance costs, further heightened fears of supply disruption. Although some gains were later trimmed, crude oil remained more than nine percent higher, while European gas prices increased by over 20 percent.

Stock markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok, Wellington, and Taipei turned red. London fell nearly one percent, while Frankfurt and Paris saw declines exceeding two percent. Shanghai remained slightly improved, and Sydney appeared stable. The US dollar initially weakened but later strengthened along with gold due to the attraction towards safe-haven assets, with gold climbing nearly two percent.

Airline stocks plummeted sharply as regional flights began to be canceled. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific dropped four percent, Sydney-listed Qantas fell 5.4 percent, and Singapore Airlines decreased by 4.8 percent. Japan's ANA and JAL also slid by more than five percent. Conversely, energy companies rallied; Australia's Woodside Energy and Santos rose by more than six percent, PetroChina climbed nearly four percent, and Japan's Inpex also saw significant gains.

Although Iran has not formally closed the Strait of Hormuz, the Revolutionary Guards have warned vessels to exercise caution. Iranian media reported that two ships collided near the coasts of Oman and the UAE, and an oil tanker was hit and sank.

Major shipping companies have confirmed rerouting their vessels. According to analyst Amna Bakr, if the situation prolongs, crude oil prices could exceed $90, and there is a risk that strategic reserves may not be able to fully cover the shortfall.

US President Donald Trump called on the Iranian people to rise against their government, stating that the war could last for 'four weeks.' However, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council clarified that there would be no negotiations with the United States. News of attacks in Lebanon following rocket fire towards Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah has increased concerns that the conflict could spread further.

According to Charu Chanana of Saxo Markets, if energy prices remain high, inflation could flare up again, making the US Federal Reserve cautious about interest rate cuts. Michelle Brohard, an analyst at Klepper, described high oil prices as the Trump administration's 'Achilles' heel,' suggesting that rising prices could increase political pressure as the US midterm elections approach.

Since Qatar is the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, the rise in gas prices is expected to further impact the global economy. According to Eric Dor, an economist at ESCP Business School in Paris, if the tension is limited to the short term, the impact may not be significant, but if it persists, rising energy and shipping costs could cast a shadow over global economic growth.