Study Highlights Security Challenges, Voter Confidence Ahead of Upcoming Elections

Stolen weapons and fugitive inmates pose the main challenges to the security of the upcoming House of Representatives elections, according to a recent study. The detailed study conducted by Nepal Law Society across 33 local levels in 35 districts noted that the misuse of social media, looted weapons, and absconding prisoners are the primary security concerns for the elections. Despite the integrated security plan adopted by the government for the elections, inflammatory content and misleading materials spreading on social media remain key security challenges. The report also suggests a possibility of escalating conflict between traditional political forces and new political factions. Nevertheless, the diligent preparation by security agencies has instilled high confidence among voters. According to Krishna Man Pradhan, Executive Director of Nepal Law Society, the study concluded that the swift and thorough preparation by security agencies has boosted voter confidence. Since the integrated security plan has been implemented in almost all districts, security personnel appear confident in their ability to maintain law and order. The government's security plan prioritizes the safety of political leaders, candidates, cadres, and the general electorate. A risk-based security strategy has been adopted to enhance election security effectiveness. A special security system has been implemented in 65 percent of areas in Lumbini Province and 51 percent in Sudurpashchim Province. Separate security plans have been developed for identified sensitive polling centers, along with an overall plan for those districts, based on an analysis of the situation at sensitive polling stations. According to the strategy of establishing and operating integrated security posts for election security, work is currently underway in many locations following this policy. The survey also indicated that the morale of security personnel has been affected due to the attacks on them during the Jan-G (Gen-Z) movement, which is a major security risk. The misuse of information technology and social media has also emerged as a major security challenge. Security personnel, in particular, consider cyberbullying and the misuse of IT and social media as significant risks. Voters Confident Elections Will Be Held on Schedule The study showed that stakeholders are confident that the House of Representatives elections will take place on the scheduled date. Amidst various speculations about the election date, the public 'Study on the Election Environment' indicated that the general voters, political parties, security agencies, and local political leaders and cadres are confident that the House of Representatives election announced for this coming Falgun 21 will be completed on time. In the detailed study, most voters expressed firm belief that the election would happen on Falgun 21. According to the study report, 71 percent of general voters are confident that the election will happen on time. Specifically, 72 percent of young voters aged 16 to 29 showed more confidence. This confidence is even higher in Madhes Province at 79 percent. A significant 91.7 percent of security personnel responsible for the country's peace and security are confident that the election will be held on the set date. The government and the Election Commission's rapid preparations, a favorable political environment, and the activism of political parties are cited as strong bases for the election to proceed. According to Pradhan, Executive Director of Nepal Law Society, the study found that voters in Madhes Province showed the highest level of trust and enthusiasm for the election provincially, while voters in Karnali Province showed some skepticism. Overall, 16 percent of voters still harbor doubts about the election happening on time. Social Media Influence Among Young Age Groups Social media appears to influence voters, especially young voters, in making their voting decisions. Young people consider mass media as well as social media as their main source for obtaining election-related information. Thirty-two percent of voters in the Gen-Z group stated that content on social media has a high impact on their voting decision. This is higher compared to other age groups. This suggests that election campaigning and dissemination via social media are more effective and widespread than physical means. Although social media is seen to have a decisive impact on the youth vote, voters expressed concern about the potential misuse of money and influence. Thirty-four percent of voters suspected the misuse of money and influence in the fairness of the election. Many expressed skepticism about effective monitoring to prevent the misuse of information technology and social media. Expectations for a Distinct Election / Constitutional and Structural Reform Voters consider this election different and distinct from previous ones. While many expressed doubt that any single party could secure a majority due to the current electoral system, almost all participants in the study hoped for a stable government after the election. They expect the post-election parliament to bring not only new representatives but also constitutional and structural reforms. Twenty-four percent of voters are firmly confident that structural changes in the political system will occur through constitutional amendment, while 34 percent stated it would be possible if there is consensus among political parties. Only 13 percent of voters expressed doubt. Eighteen percent of respondents expect a major change in the constitution leading to the implementation of a directly elected executive head system. Specifically, voters in the Gen-Z group expressed confidence that the post-election parliament will constitutionally address the agendas for governance reform and change raised during the uprising in Bhadra 2082 BS. Attraction to New Political Forces and the Search for Cleanliness Given that the election is taking place in the political climate following the Gen-Z uprising, there is a significant shift in voter expectations and attitudes towards parties. A very large number of voters (84 percent) see the emergence of new political forces in this election, and 34 percent are confident that new forces will have a significant impact. With the certainty of the election, there is an attraction among voters towards new political forces. The growing attraction towards alternative forces poses a challenge to traditional parties. According to the survey, 34 percent of voters are 'highly influenced' by new forces, and 39 percent intend to vote for new parties. Dissatisfaction with the governance style of traditional parties and attraction to new agendas show that voters are seeking new leadership. Specifically, 55 percent of voters aged 16 to 29 (Gen-Z) indicated they would choose a new force. Thirty-seven percent have not yet finalized their candidate selection. This 37 percent can be assessed as decisive in the election outcome. The number of new voters and voters changing their allegiance influences every election result. In this election too, about 24 percent of voters are seen changing their votes, with 17 percent shifting to new parties and 7 percent shifting to the same old parties. Overall, despite some security challenges and doubts, this study conveys the message that the election on Falgun 21 is certain due to government preparations, political party activism, and the enthusiasm of the general electorate. – News Agency Nepal