Intriguing Boxing Day beckons with SA in sight of WTC final

Kagiso Rabada is three wickets away from becoming the leading wicket-taker at SuperSport Park • AFP/Getty Images

Centurion, December 25 — Big picture - Can Pakistan bring ODI momentum into Test series?

There's one other Boxing Day Test, but this one is big too. If South Africa win at SuperSport Park, they will guarantee a place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final. If Pakistan win, they will keep outside hopes (so outside that they also require an over-rate penalty for South Africa) of getting to Lord's alive, but more pressingly they will keep a nation on edge for another week.

In reality, South Africa have some breathing room because they only need to win one of the next two Tests to get to the WTC final. Even with rain hanging around the Highveld, they'll fancy their chances against a team that has not recorded a Test win in this country in nearly 18 years and not won a Test outside Asia since beating West Indies in August 2021. But pressure does strange things to players, especially South African players, and Pakistan, despite all the drama surrounding them, are a team who could exploit that.

They went through a rotating door of coaches, selectors and administrators before coming to South Africa and were already in the country when their Test coach resigned, two weeks before the start of the series. Still, the build-up to this Boxing Day Test has had none of the shenanigans of Melbourne, mostly because the two sides were preoccupied with an ODI contest that serves as build-up to the Champions Trophy. Ten South Africa and seven Pakistan players from their respective Test squads were involved in that contest, which Pakistan won 3-0. If momentum is a factor, it is surely with them.

South Africa's batting, in particular, was undone, and worryingly for them three of their top four (Tony de Zorzi, Ryan Rickelton and Tristan Stubbs) all fell to the offspin of Salman Agha in the first ODI. Conditions are unlikely to suit him at SuperSport Park but the mental scars might be there and Temba Bavuma hopes it will be simple to get over them. "Whether it's easy, whether it's hard, we've got to find a way to do it," he said. "Whatever, I don't know, trauma that was there, you know, guys will have to deal with it."

Bavuma was also quick to remind that the Test space is different as it is where South Africa have more stability and focus with an immediate goal of the WTC final. The opposite might be said of Pakistan, who have won three ODI series in succession and are building towards a home Champions Trophy where they are defending the title.

That may mean the teams head into this match with slightly different priorities in terms of their current form but that won't minimise the sense of the occasion. A Boxing Day Test with plenty at stake, taking place at the same time as another Boxing Day Test, with even more on the line. It doesn't get bigger than this.

Form guide

South Africa: WWWWW (last five Tests, most recent first)

Pakistan: WWLLL

In the spotlight - Aiden Markram and Mohammad Abbas

It feels like Aiden Markram has had a difficult time of it across formats this year but his main difficulties have come in the format he captains in. He only has one score over 30 from 18 T20Is in 2024, and one fifty from six ODIs hasn't helped his cause either, but his Test form has shown signs of improving. After a century in the New Year's Test, Markram made fifties in Providence and Gqeberha and is also someone Bavuma says he "leans a lot on" when it comes to tactics and inspiring younger players. Most of all, Markram enjoys the continued support of his team-mates and Bavuma, in particular, who says he "empathises" with what Markram is going through but "that's what makes elite sport tough. You've got to find a way to go through those challenges. And generally, when you get over to the other side, that's where the satisfaction is."

It's now or never for Mohammad Abbas who, at 34, is set to make his comeback after three years out of the national side seemingly without explanation. Abbas played 25 Tests between April 2017 and August 2021 and took 90 wickets at 23.02, but was discarded in favour of younger quicks despite excellent numbers on the county circuit. He has enjoyed four fruitful seasons at Hampshire where he has taken 180 wickets at 19.26 and finished among the top 10 wicket-takers in 2022 and 2023, and just outside in 2024. This season, he is the joint second-highest wicket-taker in the Quaid-e-Azam Trophy and has deservedly earned a recall and will hope to make it count. Abbas is 10 wickets away from 100 in Test cricket and if he gets there, will be the 20th bowler from Pakistan to reach the landmark.

Team news

Both Keshav Maharaj (groin strain) and Wiaan Mulder (broken finger) passed fitness tests ahead of the match but are not deemed match-fit yet. South Africa have chosen to go in without a frontline spinner - and without spin-bowling allrounder Senuran Muthusamy - and opted for a 7-4 split. Corbin Bosch, who bowls above 140kph regularly, will debut at his home ground and share bowling duties with Kagiso Rabada, Dane Paterson and Marco Jansen. Ryan Rickelton has been retained at No.3 with Tristan Stubbs moving to No.4.

South Africa (probable): 1 Tony de Zorzi, 2 Aiden Markram, 3 Ryan Rickelton, 4 Tristan Stubbs, 5 Temba Bavuma (capt), 6 David Bedingham, 7 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Dane Paterson, 11 Corbin Bosch.

Pakistan could follow South Africa's lead and go all-pace, which would mean no space for Noman Ali, though they would still have Salman Agha at their disposal. In the seam department, then, Abbas, Aamer Jamal and Khurram Shahzad are likely to partner the 21-year old attack leader, Naseem Shah.

Pakistan (probable): 1 Abdullah Shafique, 2 Saim Ayub, 3 Shan Masood (capt), 4 Babar Azam, 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 7 Salman Ali Agha, 8 Aamer Jamal, 9 Khurram Shahzad, 10 Naseem Shah, 11 Mohammad Abbas

It has been nearly 18 years since Pakistan won a Test match in South Africa•Getty Images

Pitch and conditions

There has been significant rainfall on the Highveld in the lead-up to this Test match, which has made pitch preparation at SuperSport Park "difficult" in the words of one source. Two days out, the surface was fairly green which is in keeping with its reputation. Centurion is the most seamer-friendly wicket in the country, which also makes it the most difficult for batters. While Bavuma said he has "never played on a flat Centurion wicket", days two and three are usually good for run-scoring, but with overhead cloud batters will "know that your work is going to be cut out for you and you're going to have to work hard for your runs." The match may also be interrupted with thunderstorms forecast for the first morning and afternoon and the second and third afternoon.

Stats and Trivia

Eight batters have scored Test centuries for South Africa in 2024. It's their joint-most in a calendar year, and their most in 12 years. They have previously had eight centurions in 2004, 2008 and 2012.

Pakistan have won two of the 15 Tests they've played in South Africa, none since 2007, and none of their three at SuperSport Park. Their two wins have come at St George's Park and Kingsmead, the grounds that hosted the recent Sri Lanka series.

Kagiso Rabada is three wickets away from going past Dale Steyn and becoming the leading wicket-taker at SuperSport Park. Rabada has played just eight Tests at the venue and has only taken fewer than five wickets here on one occasion, against India in 2018. He averages just over seven wickets per Test in Centurion.

Since January 2018, there have been seven Tests at SuperSport Park and a clear advantage for seam bowlers. They have taken 227 wickets at 23.22, compared with 16 wickets at 60.62 by spinners.

Quotes

"We accept and acknowledge the fact that many expectations would have risen on the team. There'll be pressure that comes with that. But to be honest with you, we're coming into the series to win the series 2-0. We understand that for us to do that, there's certain things that we need to do as a team: keep things simple, keep doing the small things right, and allow the results to take care of itself. Obviously, one of those results is qualifying for the WTC final and obviously would like to see ourselves there. But, we're here now."

Temba Bavuma is keeping South Africa in the present moment even as they chase the big prize of reaching the WTC final

"When I went to Australia, I didn't get the time to prepare properly. It was my first overseas tour there, and I made mistakes, but also learned what I could change. Here, in similar conditions, I have had the time to prepare and get into a positive frame of mind."

Pakistan batter Saud Shakeel feels he's in a good space going into the series.