Netanyahu Faces Decision on Timing of Israeli Elections Amid Ongoing Conflicts

Jerusalem. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon have to decide when to hold the next Israeli election, as wars rage on multiple fronts with no end in sight.

If a swift victory is achieved in the wars against Iran and Lebanon, this election could prove fortunate for him. A victory in the election would further cement his legacy as Israel's longest-serving leader.

It will also be a matter of concern whether he receives approval for the war he has been fighting since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. A loss in the election risks erasing even his past achievements.

He is facing an October deadline for a four-year term. Netanyahu's government is in the final months of its four-year term and is required to hold an election by the end of October. However, Netanyahu retains the authority to dissolve the ruling coalition and call an early election before then. Israeli governments rarely complete their full terms.

As the election deadline approaches, Prime Minister Netanyahu can choose a date that offers his religious and nationalist partners the best chance of winning.

According to Israeli law requiring elections to be scheduled three months in advance, he could wait until late June, just before the summer recess, or hold them as late as autumn.

A decisive victory in the war could encourage him to call an early election. A swift campaign and decisive victory over Iran could boost Netanyahu's public standing and give him the confidence to call an early election.

He could have boasted about Israel's military might and close relationship with US President Donald Trump in an environment of smooth cooperation with the current Trump administration, but that scenario is looking increasingly unlikely three weeks into the war with Iran.

Iran is launching missile strikes on Israel daily, disrupting the lives of millions of worried and exhausted voters. Israel's war with Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon is intensifying, and Iran is beginning to disrupt oil flow from the Persian Gulf, affecting the global economy.

President Trump has given no indication of when the war will end. Members of the Republican Party's 'America First' faction have begun accusing Israel of trying to drag the US into an unnecessary war.

Recent opinion polls in Israel indicate that while Israelis overwhelmingly support the war, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his political coalition do not appear to be benefiting.

Yohanan Plesner, President of the Jerusalem think tank Israel Democracy Institute, said, "In such an environment, Netanyahu has little incentive to move up the election date."

He added, "There is no significant change in Israeli public opinion. He would rather buy more time and complete the full term available to him."