Oli's attempts to visit India falter, Indo-Nepal ties continue to sour

Kathmandu, March 7 — Nearly eight months have passed since KP Sharma Oli was appointed as the Prime Minister of Nepal, but despite being the closest neighboring country, he has not visited India, nor has there been any regular phone communication with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In the past, Nepal's Prime Ministers and Indian PM Modi would frequently communicate over the phone, including during Oli's tenure.

However, this time, the dialogue has come to a complete halt.

Even when a Nepali student died in Odisha, India, Oli could not reach Modi via phone, instead opting to send messages through microblogging site X. 

While Nepal has made multiple efforts to mend relations, India has largely ignored them.

The relationship between the two countries has become increasingly cold, as evidenced by several incidents.

Recently, India’s former Chief of Army Staff, Manoj Mukund Naravane, who visited Nepal, acknowledged the strained ties between the two countries.

After meeting with Nepalese military officials and high-ranking personnel, he recommended that both nations work towards improving relations.

Oli's India visit has been delayed due to the lack of an invitation from Modi.

Despite multiple invitations sent from Nepal, Modi has yet to visit Nepal, despite promising to do so after becoming Prime Minister.

After being sworn in, Modi had declared plans to visit Nepal, but nine months into his term, he has made visits to several other countries, excluding Nepal. 

Even when the Indian foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, visited Nepal, many expected him to bring an invitation for Modi's visit, but instead, Misri returned after delivering an invitation for Nepal's PM to visit India. 

Oli had hoped to visit India, but this plan was hindered when India did not extend an invitation.

Subsequently, Oli visited China, signing agreements as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further straining ties with India. 

Despite these challenges, Nepal continued its diplomatic efforts.

Foreign Minister Arzu Rana made multiple attempts to create favorable conditions for Oli's India visit but was met with little response.

Even when she visited India, she was not granted meetings with Indian officials, further highlighting the strained relationship. 

Other political leaders from Nepal, including UML leaders and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, also made efforts to engage with India, but these too were largely ignored.

Foreign affairs expert and UML leader Bishnu Rijal stated that there are no barriers to communication between Nepal and India.

"Various meetings and visits are still taking place, and discussions on industries, commerce, and business continue," he said. "There is no obstruction in any activities."

Rijal, who considered the meetings between the two Prime Ministers and the visits at the foreign secretary level as achievements, expressed that he did not perceive any significant problems between the two countries.

However, he admitted that there is a lack of cordiality in the relationship.

"India is a large country with vast ideas and dreams. There is no competition between Nepal and India," he said. "Nepal only wants to cooperate with India, but if a country like India does not move forward with its neighboring nations, it will face its own problems."

Rijal further added, "When India did not accept Nepal's constitution in 2015 and imposed a blockade on Nepal, did India gain or lose from that? India must have understood that."

It’s not just Rijal, but also India’s former Army Chief, General Manoj Mukund Naravane, who has pointed out that such strained relations will ultimately harm India. 

"Once the field is cleared, others will enter, and by then, everything will be over," Naravane expressed in an interview with The Print, highlighting India’s weakness and Nepal's increasing ties with China.