Hindu Kush-Himalaya Region Faces Increased Disaster Risk Despite Lower Monsoon Forecast

Kathmandu. A study has shown that despite the forecast of below-average monsoon rainfall in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region this year, the risk of disaster remains the same. Scientists have warned that this season could become more risky due to short-term heavy rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing pressure on water resources. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) published the study related to the 'Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026' on Thursday.

The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 is based on the forecasts of various climate models at the global and regional levels. ICIMOD stated that its objective is to assist governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in planning and preparedness before the monsoon season from June to September. This study projects below-average rainfall in countries including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, and above-average temperatures in most parts of the region.

Despite this, experts have indicated a high possibility of flash floods, landslides, and other risks. "Even with a weaker monsoon, short-term heavy rainfall remains a major concern," said Manish Shrestha, a hydrologist at ICIMOD. "Communities and relevant agencies need to closely follow short-term weather forecasts and advisories."

The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is estimated to increase the risk of both drought and floods in the same season. After a prolonged dry spell, heavy rainfall can occur suddenly, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, especially in hilly areas.

Hydrologist Shrestha said, "This outlook generally indicates a relatively dry monsoon, but that does not mean the risk is reduced. Short-term intense rainfall events can cause severe disasters."

Hot weather is also likely to increase heat stress and reduce water availability. Reduced snow cover stability at the beginning of the season will further weaken the region's natural water storage capacity, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability. "The short duration of snow cover indicates a reduced natural seasonal water storage capacity in the region when the monsoon begins," said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.

According to experts, these combined risks are complicating disaster planning and response management across South Asia. "The increasing uncertainty of the monsoon is creating coordination challenges," said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Head of Water and Disaster Risk Reduction at ICIMOD. "More robust coordination between governments, technical agencies, and local levels is needed for future preparedness."

The outlook also highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, as well as growing vulnerability in both rural and urban areas. "Erratic rainfall after a long dry spell increases the risk of landslides," said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of Rika India. "This can further exacerbate socio-economic pressures, including migration, food price hikes, energy crises, and disruptions in the tourism sector."

Scientists have also emphasized the need for robust early warning systems and impact-based forecasting. "Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately," said Arunabhabhakta Shrestha, Senior Advisor at ICIMOD. "Early warning systems, short-term forecasts, and local-level preparedness need to work together to face increasingly complex risks."

Experts warn that preparing for only one type of disaster is no longer sufficient as climate change-induced uncertainties increase. "The era of preparing only for a single, predictable risk is over," said Shashwat Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist at ICIMOD. "Forecast-based action and early warnings must now become basic necessities."

The Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region spans 3,500 kilometers across Asia. It encompasses eight countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. This region, comprising high mountain ranges, mid-hills, and plains, is crucial for the food, water, and energy security of approximately two billion people. It is also home to countless rare and irreplaceable flora and fauna. The region is vulnerable to the impacts of global crises stemming from climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss.