Modi's BJP ahead in Haryana election but trails in Kashmir

Top wrestler and Congress candidate Vinesh Phogat has won from Haryana's Julana constituency. (Getty Images)

Delhi, October 8 — Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party is leading in the northern state of Haryana but is set to fall short in Indian-administered Kashmir as votes continue to be counted in two major elections.

An opposition alliance formed by the Congress and regional party National Conference (NC) is ahead in Jammu and Kashmir.

These were the first assembly polls to be held in India since the general election, which returned the BJP to power in June with a reduced majority.

A third straight win in Haryana would be a big boost for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of other state elections due in the next few weeks.

The Congress had expressed confidence of a victory in Haryana ahead of the results but analysts now say complacency, infighting and a consolidation against the powerful Jat community may have affected its chances.

A keenly watched seat in Haryana - Julana - gave some relief to the Congress as top wrestler Vinesh Phogat won her first election.

The two results have proven exit polls wrong again - they had predicted a majority for the Congress in Haryana and a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir.

Both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have 90 assembly seats and a party or coalition that crosses the halfway mark can form the government.

According to votes counted so far, the Congress-NC alliance is ahead in around 48 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, while the BJP is ahead in 29. The BJP's count was helped by its performance in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

This was the first assembly election to be held in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019, when the federal government revoked the region's autonomy and changed it into a federally governed territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

The three-phase elections saw top leaders from the BJP and Congress make several promises, including the restoration of full statehood.

Many voters told the BBC that they hoped that the election would give them a chance to voice their concerns after having no local representatives for years.

However, many say they are sceptical about how much influence the elected government will have, since the chief minister will have to get the federally appointed lieutenant governor's approval on major decisions.

After the last election in 2014, the BJP formed a government with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But they parted ways in June 2018 over political and ideological differences amid rising violence in the Kashmir valley. Since then, Delhi has governed the region.

The elections in 2024 were closely watched as federal officials held them up as a proof of normalcy in a region facing militancy for decades.

The region has witnessed a violent insurgency against Indian rule for more than three decades, resulting in thousands of deaths.

India blames Pakistan for fomenting the violence, a charge its neighbour denies. The countries have fought two wars over Kashmir, which both claim in full but administer only in parts.

For the first time in decades, several separatists - who advocate for Kashmir's independence from India - also took part in the elections. Smaller players and regional parties were hoping to play a crucial role in government formation after exit polls suggested a hung assembly.

In Haryana, the governing BJP faced the major challenge of anti-incumbency after a decade of being in power.

The Congress's hopes were buoyed by anger over controversial federal farm laws – now withdrawn – and a short-term army recruitment scheme brought by the BJP.

The farm laws had sparked months of protests from farmers in Haryana and neighbouring states as protesters feared they would allow the entry of private players into agriculture.

The short-term army recruitment scheme, Agniveer, was a contentious issue in the state, which contributes a significant number of soldiers to the Indian army, especially at a time when India grapples with a jobs crisis.

But now the BJP looks set to overcome these challenges to achieve a hat-trick win.